Transport scenario studies

Scenarios are not only forecasts, but also well-structured and analytic thought experiments. In scenario studies, the focus is not only on predicting events, but also on the mapping of changes in world views and on forces and processes (medium-term) that can emerge, develop or strengthen.

 A scenario study has an exploratory nature and aims to reduce uncertainties and explore what implications this may have for future developments.

Scenario development is an essential tool in changing the unpredictable future into foreseeable, most likely, developments. This is how to convey and discuss a policy or project with the business environment, policymakers and other stakeholders. Panteia owns tools that allow scenario description and their evaluation. Moreover, our experience with these types of studies allows us to apply the right set of instruments. In certain policy cases for example, in the urban environment, there are multi-facetted policy aims. In these circumstances we can apply a “decision accelerator” wherein, different stakeholders are brought together in one area for a simulation. In addition, our in-house call centre can provide support through polls.

Different scenarios are tested in transport studies with our in-house policy tools, notably TRANS-TOOLS. Panteia is one of its founding fathers and the tool allows the simulation of different policy scenario’s at European level. Moreover, Panteia staff has contributed to the development of several national transport models in various European countries (Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, Luxemburg, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria Hungary, Georgia and Russia). One of the key elements is that Panteia not only has experience with issues concerning domestic transport, but also with internationally related transport issues, such as transit and transhipment traffic. For example, a transport policy can have an effect on the competitive position of ports, which in turn will have an effect on the transport flows within a country.

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